Preparing Dutch Homes for Energy Transition: A Decision Support Framework for Renovating Existing Dutch Dwellings for Lower Temperature District Heating

A Decision Support Framework for Renovating Existing Dutch Dwellings for Lower Temperature District Heating

Abstract

Recent geopolitical events have driven a sharp rise in gas prices, making it increasingly difficult for households to heat their homes affordably and comfortably. Additionally, the environmental consequences of fossil fuel-based heating underscore the urgency of transitioning to more sustainable alternatives. In response, the Dutch government has set an ambitious target to eliminate natural gas heating in 1.5 million homes by 2030, emphasising the need for viable solutions. District heating (DH) systems, particularly those providing lower-temperature heating (LTH), offer a promising alternative—delivering sustainable and cost-effective heating, especially in densely populated areas. However, with their high heating demands, many existing homes require significant renovations before efficiently transitioning to LTH-based systems. The selection of appropriate renovation strategies is complex, often leading to uncertainty and delays.

This research tackles the challenge of preparing Dutch homes for LTH by developing a systematic decision-support framework using a mixed-methods research approach. It is structured around four key research activities. First, it identifies and analyses the critical factors influencing building characteristics, available renovation options and performance indicators. Second, it defines LTH readiness, prioritises thermal comfort and energy efficiency at reduced supply temperatures, and uses a two-step evaluation method to assess a dwelling's readiness and identify necessary interventions. Third, recognising the diversity within the Dutch housing stock, probabilistic sampling and machine learning analyses were employed to quantify the relative significance of building features affecting LTH readiness, accounting for variations across dwelling types. Finally, a structured six-step decision support framework based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods was developed and validated through real-world case studies and stakeholder workshops.

By providing a clear and actionable decision-support framework, this thesis facilitates energy renovation planning, accelerates the transition to gas-free heating, and contributes to the Netherlands' broader sustainable energy goals.